[Population-census] State Population Projections Released by Census Bureau

[Ken Darga]

New projections of population for states were released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.  

Text from a press release from the Department of History, Arts, and Libraries appears below.  Additional analysis of the projections and detailed tables will be posted on our website on Friday.
www.michigan.gov/census 

Projections for all states are currently available at:
http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/projectionsagesex.html 

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State Demographer Says Michigan's Population May Grow
More than Census Bureau Predicts

There are many factors to consider when interpreting the new population projections  released today by the U.S. Census Bureau, according to Michigan's state demographer, Kenneth Darga.  The new projections suggest that Michigan's population will increase by only 7.6 percent between 2000 and 2030, but Darga said there are many scenarios that could lead to greater growth.

Darga pointed out that population projections are based on assumptions about future births, deaths, international migration and domestic migration.  "The most critical assumption in the new projections is that Michigan's net out-migration to other states will increase to the average level experienced between 1975 and 2000," Darga said. This assumption understates Michigan's likely level of population growth, according to Darga, because Michigan's current level of net out-migration is considerably lower than the levels experienced in the 1970s and 1980s.   

"Migration out of Michigan was especially high during those decades," Darga said, "because several negative factors were operating at the same time.  These factors included a much larger gap in unemployment rates between Michigan and other states than we are experiencing today; out-migration of young Baby Boomers; return-migration among the large number of people who had moved to Michigan in previous decades; and rapid population declines in the city of Detroit."

While Michigan is projected to grow by 7.6 percent between 2000 and 2030, the U.S. as a whole is projected to grow by 29 percent.  Ten other states are projected to grow more slowly than Michigan, including Iowa (1 percent) and Ohio (1.7 percent).  Michigan's rank among the states is projected to drop from 8th largest in 2000 to 9th in 2019 (behind Georgia), 10th in 2020 (behind North Carolina) and 11th in 2030 (behind Arizona).  

According to the projections, the nation's fastest-growing states, in percentage terms, would be Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas, Utah and Idaho.  Three states - Florida, California and Texas - would comprise nearly one-half (46 percent) of total U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030.  Florida, currently the fourth most populous state, would consequently edge past New York into third place by 2011.  

According to the new projections, the Great Lakes State will experience a decrease in the percentage of its population under age 18 between 2000 and 2030 (from 26.1 percent to 
22.8 percent of the total), and an increase in the percentage age 65 and older (from 12.3 percent to 19.5 percent of the total).  By 2030, Michigan is expected to rank 32nd in the percentage of total population 65 and over.  Ten states are expected to have more people 65 and over than under 18, including Florida, Delaware, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Vermont.  Other Midwestern states such as Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio are projected to experience similar losses in the percentage of those under 18.

According to Darga, the population projections released today do not take account of several factors that may contribute to a higher rate of population growth for Michigan:

· If we make our cities more attractive and improve our economic climate, our rate of out-migration should decrease rather than increase.

· Shortages of water may constrain the large increases in population that are projected for several western and southwestern states.  

· Michigan may benefit from an improving balance of return-migration.  Much of Michigan's out-migration has involved natives of other states who move away, and much of its in-migration has involved Michigan natives who eventually return home.  Because of shifts in migration patterns which occurred between the middle decades and the final decades of the 20th century, Michigan is coming to have a smaller pool of natives from other states who tend to have a high rate of out-migration, and a larger pool of Michigan natives living elsewhere who tend to have a significant rate of return-migration.

· Congestion and high housing costs may retard growth in some of the states for which rapid growth is projected.

· Foreign immigration may decrease because of homeland security concerns, international shifts in employment opportunities, and improved educational opportunities in other countries.  Since a decline in foreign immigration would probably affect many other states more than Michigan, it would tend to reduce the projected decline in Michigan's share of the nation's population.


The Library of Michigan serves as Michigan's representative in the Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates and Federal-State Cooperative for Population Projections.  For more information about Michigan census data, visit www.michigan.gov/census.

The Library of Michigan is part of the Michigan Department of History, Arts and Libraries, whose mission is to enrich quality of life and strengthen the economy by providing access to information, preserving and promoting Michigan's heritage and fostering cultural creativity.  The department also includes the Mackinac Island State Park Commission, the Michigan Council for Arts and Cultural Affairs, the Michigan Film Office and the Michigan Historical Center.