[Population-census] New Projections of U.S. Population

[Ken Darga]

The Census Bureau today released new interim projections of the U.S.
population to the year 2050.  These projections do not include figures
for individual states.

The new projections are on the web at:
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/ 

The new projections are quite similar to previous projections that had
been based on the 1990 Census.  They are slightly higher than the former
projections because (a) the 2000 Census had less undercount than the
1990 Census, and (b) the 2000 Census revealed a higher level of
international immigration than had previously been asssumed.  

The new projections assume a continuation of higher international
immigration.  However, the new projections also assume a somewhat
smaller increase in fertility rates from current levels.

Some highlights of the new projections:

(1) The racial mix of the U.S. population is projected to change
considerably between 2000 and 2050:
                                       2000              2050

   non-Hispanic whites    69.4%            50.1%
   blacks                         12.7%            14.6%
   Asians                           3.8%              8.0%
   Hispanics                    12.6%            24.4%

(Note: Columns do not add to 100% because separate projections have not
been released for the Native American population, the Hawaiian/Pacific
Islander population, the multiracial population, or the racial breakdown
of non-white Hispanics .)


(2) The working age population (age 20-64) now represents a higher
percentage of the total population than ever before, and this percentage
is still rising.  However this percentage will drop once Baby Boomers
begin passing age 65 after 2010 .  (See table below.)


(3) Although this percentage of people age 20-64 will drop after 2010,
it is not projected to drop below the levels experienced prior to 1910
or from 1960-1970.  (See table below.)  The difference from prior
periods in which the working age population was low is that the prior
periods had high proportions of children and low proportions of elderly
people.  This will be reversed in future decades.


(4) The preponderance of elderly people iis expected to continue
increasing even after the passing of the Baby Boom.  The previous
projection series extended to the year 2100--which is 135 years after
the end of the Baby Boom--and it indicated a continued increase in the
preponderance of elderly people and a continued decrease in the
proportion of working age people due to low birth rates.  Under the new
assumption of even lower fertility, the future preponderance of elderly
people would be even greater.


Year    % of pop age 20-64

1900             51.4%
1910             53.6%
1920             54.5%
1930             55.7%
1940             58.7%
1950             57.9%
1960             52.3%
1970             52.2%
1980             56.7%
1990             58.8%
2000             59.0%
2010             60.0%
2020             57.3%
2030             54.2%
2040             53.6%
2050             53.4%

(based on Census counts for 1990-2000 and new Census Bureau projections
for 2010-2050)

-- Kenneth Darga, State Demographer
   Library of Michigan
   DargaK at michigan.gov