[Population-census] Estimates of Statewide Population by Age

[Ken Darga]

State population estimates by age for 2000 through 2003 were released
today by the Census Bureau.  These estimates are available from the
Census Bureau's website at:
http://eire.census.gov/popest/estimates_dataset.php 

Tables highlighting changes in Michigan's population will be posted
soon to our website at:
www.michigan.gov/census 

These population estimates are often misinterpreted--it would be a
mistake to assume that changes to the population for a given age group
simply represent people moving in or out of the state.  For example, the
decrease of Michigan's population age 15-44 by 41,000 persons has been
misinterpreted as an exodus of 41,000 young people from the state. 
Similarly, it would be possible to misinterpret the increase of
Michigan's population age 18-24 by 60,000 persons as a migration of
young people into the state.

In both of these cases, the changes actually reflect historical
fluctuations in birth rates rather than current migration trends.  Many
baby-boomers have been passing age 45 in the past three years, while a
much smaller number of people have been passing age 15.  Likewise. the
number of people passing age 25 has been smaller than the number passing
age 18.  

According to the Census Bureau's estimates for the three year period
from July 2000 to July 2003, Michigan has actually had a small amount of
net in-migration of people currently age 15-44 (over 9000 people).  The
state has had a small amount of net out-migration for the subset of that
population age 18-24 (about 4000 people).




-- Kenneth Darga, State Demographer
   Library of Michigan
   DargaK at michigan.gov